Player profile
Player name
Position
School tier
School name
Player type — quick preset
Projected draft slot — most likely
Pick 1 · R1
#1
Floor (worst case)
Pick 1
#1
Ceiling (best case)
Pick 1
#1
NIL & return earnings
NIL benchmark · QB · P4 Elite
$1M – $4M/yr
Typical for a projected top-5 pick returning to a blue-chip program
Current NIL value ($/yr)
$0
$500K
Return years (if stays)
1–3 yrs
1 yr
NIL upside if returns (% increase)
Projected NIL growth
+20%
Downside scenario
Stock drop if returns (picks)
−5 picks
−5
NIL downside (% of current)
80% of current
80%
Risk factors
Apply injury risk discount
Reduces draft earnings by position-adjusted injury probability
Include transfer portal option
Model earnings at a higher-profile program
Stock rising (recent performance)
Adjusts slot upward — declare now vs. risk regression
Transfer portal (if applicable)
Transfer destination
Projected NIL at transfer school ($/yr)
$1.0M
DraftIQ Recommendation
Declare for the Draft
Draft earnings significantly outpace return value.
Draft advantage
$0M
over returning
📋 Declare — 4-Year Rookie Deal
$0M
Total rookie contract value
4-yr contract (gross)$0M
Year 1 salary$0M
Guaranteed$0M
Injury risk discount—
5th-year option eligible—
Risk-adjusted value$0M
🎓 Return — Upside Scenario
$0M
Total return value
NIL earnings (current)$0M
NIL upside projection$0M
Draft slot improvement—
Injury risk (college)—
Stock rising bonus—
Total return value$0M
⚠️ Return — Downside Scenario
$0M
If stock drops + NIL underperforms
NIL (downside)$0M
NIL growth assumedNone
Draft slot change—
Slot value vs. declaring now—
Injury risk (college)—
Downside total value$0M
Draft slot probability range — declare now
Floor (worst)
—
—
Most likely
—
—
Ceiling (best)
—
—
EV weighted 20/60/20 across floor/likely/ceiling.
Risk factor analysis
Career earnings timeline
Rookie deal only · 5-year window · No second contract modeled
Declare now
Return — upside
Return — downside
Agent notes / client context
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