Track record · 2026 draft post-mortem

We called our shot. Here's what happened.

Our v4 model published predictions for all 100 picks before Round 1 began. This is the full accuracy breakdown — what the model got right, what it missed, and the five engineering priorities we're building into v5 before the 2027 Combine.

21/32Round 1 players projected in Round 1
9exact pick hits
43%overall round accuracy
100picks modeled, published before the draft

2026 NFL Draft Model Analysis

2 pages · PDF · April 2026 · updated Oct 2026
GB ensembleMonte Carlo · 10K simsKalshi + Polymarket
  • Round-level accuracy breakdown
  • 9 confirmed exact pick hits
  • 8 Round 1 trades — how they broke the model
  • v5 engineering priorities for 2027

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What's in the report

Hits, misses, and the fix

What the model got right

66% Round 1 accuracy, 9 exact hits, and an OL-heavy draft correctly anticipated.

What broke it

8 unmodeled Round 1 trades, 34 players outside the prospect pool, and the Eagles' WR pivot.

v5 engineering priorities

Trade modeling, a deeper prospect pool, and a real-time beat reporter layer, with where each one stands as of October.

Why it matters for agents

Rounds 2–3 are where the quantitative edge is. Team need is predictable; board position is quantifiable.

About DraftIQ

Built for agents, not front offices

DraftIQ is the first predictive draft intelligence platform purpose-built for NFL agents. We publish predictions before the draft begins, track every result, and build the accuracy record in public. Enterprise tools cost $100K+ a year and are built for front offices; DraftIQ is built for the 800+ NFLPA-certified agents who represent the players. Launching at the 2027 Combine.